Despite Novo's lead, Lilly's obesity medication makes a multibillion dollar debut on Wall Street
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Analysts predict that the recently approved weight-loss tablet would quickly reduce Novo Nordisk's (NOVOb.CO) head start in
the oral market and generate billions of dollars in sales as early as this year. Lilly's orforglipron, branded Foundayo, is expected to sell between $1.5 billion and $2.8 billion in 2026, according to brokerages. This wide range reflects both strong demand expectations and uncertainties surrounding the launch's early phases.
Bernstein is one of Wall Street's more optimistic forecasters, estimating that the medicine might make between $2 billion and $2.5 billion in its first full year. Even more optimistic, Citi analysts predict revenue of almost $2.8 billion in 2026, with peak annual sales expected to surpass $40 billion.
Guggenheim Partners' calculations, which anticipate about $1.5 billion for 2026, are more conservative.
However, the pill is anticipated to change the competitive environment even at the lower end.
According to UBS, the combination of Novo's oral Wegovy and Lilly's medication will bring in roughly $5 billion in 2026, indicating the start of a significant new oral class.
Foundayo is a formidable rival to Novo because to its simpler manufacturing process and less dosage limitations.
J.P. Morgan analysts predicted that Foundayo's revenues would reach $6 billion by 2027 due to the company's scalability advantages and strong demand for oral choices, which could help it become the top pill option, particularly globally.
However, the pill is anticipated to change the competitive environment even at the lower end.
According to UBS, the combination of Novo's oral Wegovy and Lilly's medication will bring in roughly $5 billion in 2026, indicating the start of a significant new oral class.
Foundayo is a formidable rival to Novo because to its simpler manufacturing process and less dosage limitations.
J.P. Morgan analysts predicted that Foundayo's revenues would reach $6 billion by 2027 due to the company's scalability advantages and strong demand for oral choices, which could help it become the top pill option, particularly globally.
However, launch dynamics may limit early uptake.
Even when prescription volumes increase, Bernstein analysts pointed out that free sample, reduced starting dosage, and price adjustments may have an impact on short-term income. They said that the market will be keenly monitoring weekly new-patient beginnings as a crucial sign of trend.
Additionally, Novo's oral Wegovy benefits from first-mover advantage and brand familiarity, which helps it attract early adopters in the market.
Even when prescription volumes increase, Bernstein analysts pointed out that free sample, reduced starting dosage, and price adjustments may have an impact on short-term income. They said that the market will be keenly monitoring weekly new-patient beginnings as a crucial sign of trend.
Additionally, Novo's oral Wegovy benefits from first-mover advantage and brand familiarity, which helps it attract early adopters in the market.
Analysts predict that oral medications will broaden the scope of obesity therapies in the long run. According to Morningstar, by 2034, obesity medications might make up over one-third of the $180 billion global market.
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